truth and relevance [hearing what you expect]

HuffPo, Rob Blair: Liberians' takes on the Sirleaf-TRC controversy
Sirleaf is under fire, it seems, because she failed to repent her actions, while more sordid characters were dropped from the TRC's list because they expressed remorse. Among them is the notorious Joshua Blahyi, alias Gen. Butt Naked, a warlord-cum-preacher known for his brutality and his penchant for entering battle wearing nothing but boots. Blahyi's compunction outweighed, in the TRC's peculiar calculus, the more than 20,000 deaths he caused during the war. Asks Kristof: "Can anybody explain?"...

I posed Kristof's question to five Liberians living in Monrovia. I picked individuals from disparate backgrounds to try to capture some of the variety in Liberian views on the TRC. Everyone I interviewed agreed that Sirleaf supported Taylor, but disagreed on just about everything else. These are some of their insights.

Making Sense of Darfur, Alex de Waal: on interviewing, listening, and understanding (via wronging rights)
I have observed the same person say completely different things in different contexts. It’s not deceit or even contradiction: it’s that courtesy demands saying certain things, context constrains what can be said, and the ways in which questions are posed—or discussions left unfinished—means that only one part of a complicated picture emerges. In some cases, political instructions dictate that certain things are said in a formal exchange, and other messages passed when the proceedings have formally closed.
Sudan commentary: Kristof responds to Mamdani (via Chris Blattman)

Boston Review: development debate featuring Collier, Miguel, Easterly, Diamond, Krasner, Birdsall, and McGovern (via Chris Blattman)
Collier:
Chad is not alone. It is one of a group of about 60 small, impoverished, post-colonial countries that “came unnatural into the world.” With neither the social unity needed for cooperation, nor the size to reap the benefits of larger scale, they are structurally unable to provide the public goods—such as security—that are critical for decent quality of life and imperative for economic development. They have diverged from the rest of mankind. They will never tap their vast reservoir of frustrated human potential unless the international community, at least for a time, supplies basic public goods that go beyond the typical aid agenda. This, stated baldly, is the thesis of my new book, Wars, Guns, and Votes. It is a troubling thesis. I have come to it reluctantly, and the international community has shied away from it, as have the societies of the bottom billion themselves.

Why is outside intervention necessary? The countries of the bottom billion are, paradoxically, too large to be nations, yet too small to be states. They are too large to be nations because, with rare exceptions, too many different peoples, with too many distinct ethnic and religious identities, live in them. This is not because they have large populations: on the contrary, the typical bottom-billion country has only a few million people. But these populations have yet to forge a strong sense of national identity that overrides older sub-national ethnic and religious identities. Considerable research shows that where sub-national identities predominate, it is more difficult for people to cooperate in providing public goods.

Easterly:
I have been troubled by Paul Collier’s research and policy advocacy for some time. In this essay he goes even further in directions I argued were dangerous in his previous work. Collier wants to de facto recolonize the “bottom billion,” and he justifies his position with research that is based on one logical fallacy, one mistaken assumption, and a multitude of fatally flawed statistical exercises...

Yet even if Collier got valid correlations, which he has not, correlation does not equal causation, which he also fails to address. As Daron Acemoglu of MIT commented on Collier’s earlier research on civil wars: “The correlations that are interpreted as causal effects are really no more than correlations. . . . It is too early to jump to policy conclusions.”

Collier:
Nothing could better illustrate the true nature of the disagreement about peacekeeping than Easterly’s accusation of colonialism. This accusation is founded on coarse thought, not statistical rigor. Colonialism was an oppressive system in which non-democratic empires conquered territories and ran them according to the interest of their own elites. International peacekeeping is temporary, sanctioned by democratic governments whose electorates have no appetite for empire, and aimed at establishing governments that are accountable to their own citizens. Conflating peacekeeping with colonialism is too crude to constitute abuse.

LAT: Uighur - Han violence in China
China's worst ethnic violence in years broke out Sunday in the northwestern city of Urumqi, leaving 140 people dead and more than 800 injured, the state news agency Xinhua reported.
NYT: the violence was sparked by government repression of a Uighur protest
The clashes on Sunday began when the police confronted a protest march held by Uighurs to demand a full government investigation of a brawl between Uighur and Han workers that erupted in Guangdong Province overnight on June 25 and June 26. The brawl took place in a toy factory and left 2 Uighurs dead and 118 people injured. The police later arrested a bitter ex-employee of the factory who had ignited the fight by starting a rumor that 6 Uighur men had raped 2 Han women at the work site, Xinhua reported.

WP: Mexican army accused of egregious human rights abuses in drug war
In Puerto Las Ollas, a mountain village of 50 people in the southern state of Guerrero, residents recounted how soldiers seeking information last month stuck needles under the fingernails of a disabled 37-year-old farmer, jabbed a knife into the back of his 13-year-old nephew, fired on a pastor, and stole food, milk, clothing and medication...

Mexican security forces have long had a spotty human rights record, but the growing number of abuse allegations appears to be a direct response to the savagery unleashed by the cartels after President Felipe Calderón put the military in charge of the drug war in December 2006. Most of the violations have occurred in regions where the sight of dismembered bodies of soldiers and police is remarkably common. In the state of Michoacán, investigators with the government's National Human Rights Commission concluded that the army committed abuses against 65 people over three days -- including several cases of torture and the rape of two girls -- after five soldiers were killed in an attack in May 2007.

LAT: stellar series on gangs and intervention programs in South L.A.
...The boys' lives were at risk, she told him. The gun was for defense. There were no jobs, not here; they had no money to move away from their troubles. Finally, defeated, she whispered: "This is South-Central."

And so it's been for decades -- the cradle of the thug life, the home, still, to many of the city's 400 gangs. But nights like this one are no longer explained away as simply the way things are and the way things will be.

Looking to capitalize on declining crime rates, and gang violence in particular, the LAPD has doubled its rate of gang arrests in some pockets of South Los Angeles, as South-Central is now known officially, and has implemented a new enforcement strategy against six gangs, including Barrio Mojados. Meanwhile, a wave of construction is underway and, in an area long crippled by an absence of social services, community-based groups are bringing job training, kids' baseball -- even a free Internet "cloud" over one neighborhood.

This is still a troubled place, and will be for years to come. But police, residents and civic leaders alike believe there is an opportunity here, however fragile, to restore a sense of community that many feared was lost forever in the crack-and-bullet epidemic of the 1980s and '90s. If so, South L.A.'s identity within the city could begin to shift, revealing a far more dynamic place than the one cemented in the public consciousness as an intractable ghetto.

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NYT: a non-war-related story on Colombia! (who cares if it's about the 'environment'? SV will take it.)

precrime and prevention [throwing stones]

WP: Obama to combine DHS and NSC
[NSA James] Jones and [Deputy National Security Advisor for Homeland Security John] Brennan, whom Obama tapped Feb. 23 to lead a 60-day organizational review, said the changes will strengthen the White House security staff, which includes aides detailed from other departments.

Among other things, Obama is establishing a new global engagement directorate to coordinate U.S. communications with other countries and to streamline U.S. diplomatic, aid, environment and energy policies in support of security objectives, officials said.
WSJ: public support for Afghanistan war weak, resolve and upholding "American values" necessary
American public support for the Afghan war will dissipate in less than a year unless the Obama administration achieves "a perceptible shift in momentum," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in an interview...

The interview comes as Mr. Gates is trying to fundamentally change how the military prepares for and fights its wars. Mr. Bush brought him in to calm the waters in late 2006 after Donald Rumsfeld's contentious reign. Some predicted an unremarkable and fairly short tenure, but three years later, Mr. Gates has become one of the most powerful defense chiefs in decades. He has cut billions of dollars in high-tech weapons systems and fired a raft of high-ranking generals and senior Pentagon officials.

BBC: large Lahore attack aimed at ISI offices kills dozens, wounds hundreds; blamed on Taliban
Interior Minister Rehman Malik told reporters: "Enemies of Pakistan who want to destabilise the country are coming here after their defeat in Swat. There is a war, and this is a war for our survival."
CSM: women threatened amid " Talibanization" of Karachi
The warnings have caused a panic among upper- and middle-class women who have long enjoyed the liberal environment of Pakistan's most cosmopolitan city, where the fashion industry is thriving, female employment is on the rise, and the literacy rate of 65 percent far exceeds the national average of 46 percent.

While no physical attacks have been reported, some women have been threatened at gunpoint. Others, like prominent activist Attiya Dawood, have had eggs thrown at them while walking through residential parks.

Female students have also been targeted. Private, coed institutions have reportedly received letters signed by the Taliban warning them to close down or segregate their students, or face the consequences, which might include the kidnapping of students. When approached, school administration officials refuse to discuss the situation, with some arguing that it is better for their students' safety to be kept out of the media.

CSM: minors tried under harsh anti-terrorism law in Turkey
"I never thought I could go to prison for throwing a stone," says Hebun, who spent 10 months in an adult prison awaiting his initial trial. "I become really angry when I think that just for throwing a stone they were asking to put me away for 28 years. It's unjust." Now out on bail pending an appeal, he faces an amended sentence of seven years.

Hebun is one of hundreds of minors, some as young as 13, who have been arrested and jailed in Turkey over the past few years under strict new antiterrorism laws that allow for juveniles to be tried as adults and even be accused of "committing crimes in the name of a terrorist organization" for participating in demonstrations. Critics and rights defenders say the amended antiterrorism laws are deeply flawed and also violate international conventions on the detention of children.

BBC: Somalia conflict creates surge in victims, some 60,000 displaced
It comes as a radical cleric on the US terror list, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, formally became leader of the Somali Islamist rebel group Hisbul-Islam.

The militia, and an allied hardline group, al-Shabab, have been locked in fierce battles with pro-government forces that have displaced more than 60,000 civilians since 7 May.

The International Committee of the Red Cross, which funds and runs two of Mogadishu's three hospitals, Medina and Keysaney, told the BBC more than 650 patients have sought treatment since the clashes began and that many more were trapped in conflict zones.

BBC: "Daddy Ken," Nigerian militant leader, arrested after being turned in by locals
It is unusual for people to turn in militants as they are often feared or pay Delta communities to keep quiet. But residents of Odi said they feared a repeat of an army operation 10 years ago which devastated the town...

A military operation is currently under way in the swamps of neighbouring Delta State. The military Joint Task Force (JTF) are hunting militants from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Mend). It has been impossible to verify any casualty figures as travel to the region has been restricted by the military.

BBC: former Ivorian rebels (belatedly) transfer control of territory, in move toward elections
Former rebel forces in Ivory Coast have relinquished territory in the north to civilian administrators appointed by President Laurent Gbagbo... He signed a peace deal with the New Forces rebels in 2007. Presidential elections - repeatedly postponed - are due to be held in November.

The former French colony was torn apart by a brief civil war in 2002 when the New Forces seized control of the mainly Muslim north of the country... The transfer of power, due in January under the latest United Nations-backed peace pact signed at the end of 2008, was twice postponed.
BBC: Rwandan parliament approves solitary confinement for cases of genocide, as well as rape and gang-related crimes

CSM: continued conflict in northern Darfur
The past fortnight has seen an upsurge in clashes as rebels try to claim a "liberated" zone ahead of rains due to begin within a couple of weeks.

In return, government Antonov planes have pounded targets every morning and evening, while rebels seek out whatever cover they can find in Darfur's empty desert.

Peace talks between the two sides are set to resume in Qatar on Wednesday. But with fighting on the increase and trust at rock bottom, few experts hold out hope for any major breakthroughs...

In the past year, the war has settled into a low-intensity phase, in sharp contrast to the early days, when government-backed janjaweed militias launched a scorched-earth campaign to deprive rebels of civilian support.

These days, death comes in ones and twos, with bombs dropped from Antonov warplanes. Or it comes day after day in the aid camps, as fragile children succumb to diseases of malnutrition and want.

At the same time, Sudan and Chad have stepped up their proxy war. Chadian war planes have been operating deep into Darfur seeking out bases of Khartoum-backed rebels who launched attacks inside Chad earlier this month.

JEM's offensive brings the risk of Sudanese reprisal against its own bases across the border, turning a war by proxy into a real front line.

WSJ: refugees trapped in Sri Lanka now being sorted into guerrilla and non-guerrilla
After Sri Lanka's army finished off the Tamil Tigers as a fighting force last week, the Sri Lankan government turned its attention to rooting out those who may have served in the separatist guerrilla movement -- willingly or unwillingly. Though the government says the screening is necessary to squeeze the last breaths from a 26-year insurgency, the process is proving wrenching for families who survived the war only to be separated in peace.

So far, say army officials, the screening process has netted more than 9,000 Tamil Tigers. Most came forward voluntarily, army officials say. They are expected to spend about six months at rehabilitation camps, where they will be taught vocational skills and monitored to make sure they don't harbor allegiance to the Tigers and their violent separatist movement. A few hundred hard-core insurgents will be kept longer, army officials say.
CSM: new politics, and competition, among Tamils
Tamil activists say that the end of the 26-year war for a separate state for the island's ethnic Tamil minority should allow more moderate voices to emerge. But it could also spark instability as rivals duke it out in electoral battlegrounds in Tamil areas like Jaffna and among the population displaced by war. The presence of armed groups loyal to Tamil politicians and often in league with security forces adds to the combustible mix.

"The LTTE has always said it was the sole representative of the Tamil people. So who speaks for Tamils now?" asks a social activist in Colombo...

On Wednesday, the Sri Lankan officials said the government will continue its state of emergency, which includes police powers such as searches of private homes and 18-month detention of suspects without a trial. It said the restrictions are necessary to prevent a resurgence of the rebel movement. Sri Lankan officials also say they are holding some 9,100 rebel prisoners and will release many for "rehabilitation."
WP: UNHCHR calls for probe into government and rebel abuses

WP: North Korea sees South Korean decision to inspect ships suspected of nuclear activity as "declaration of war"

LAT: sweep of mayors and security officials for drug corruption in Michoacán, Mexico
Those detained include a key advisor to [state governor] Godoy, a judge and several top regional public security officials, the attorney general's office said. Most were taken to Mexico City for questioning after being rounded up during the morning from their homes, offices and city halls...

Although Mexican authorities have frequently arrested corrupt security agents in drug-related cases, this is the first time they have gone after such a large number of elected officials. The sweep was significant because it represents an effort to hit the political cover that the traffickers enjoy, though it may not make much of a dent in the smuggling network, analysts said... At least 83 of Michoacan's 113 municipalities are mixed up at some level with narcos, a Mexican intelligence source told The Times this month. The source, not authorized to talk to the press, spoke on condition of anonymity...

La Familia has been doing battle with the so-called Gulf cartel, which moved into Michoacan a few years ago in what was initially a strategic partnership. The arrangement ruptured last year, with the two groups struggling over control of land to produce drugs and over transport routes, including Michoacan's valued Lazaro Cardenas seaport. La Familia specializes in marijuana, methamphetamine and cocaine. In the last year it has set up shop in 20 to 30 cities and towns across the United States, a senior U.S. law enforcement official said Tuesday.
PCB: Adam Isacson on Colombia's new "Integrated Action" security plan
It is a set of new Colombian government programs that have gone under many names in the past few years. These include Plan Colombia 2, Plan Colombia Consolidation Phase, Social Recovery of Territory (or Social Control of Territory), the National Consolidation Plan, the Center for the Coordination of Integrated Action (CCAI), or the “Strategic Leap.”

Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia’s defense minister until last week, offered this definition: “It means state institutions’ entry or return to zones affected by violence to satisfy the population’s basic needs, like health, education and public services, as well as justice, culture, recreation and infrastructure projects.”

The underlying idea is that Colombia’s historically neglected rural areas will only be taken back from illegal armed groups if the entire government is involved in “recovering” or “consolidating” its presence in these territories. While the military and police must handle security, the doctrine contends that the rest of the government must be brought into these zones in a quick, coordinated way.

WSJ: predicting gang involvement in LA's youth: as easy as ABC
The multiple-choice screening, some 70 questions long, shows how closely Los Angeles has begun to examine the work of social scientists to tackle complex policy issues like gang violence. Last year, city officials turned to Dr. Klein and his colleagues at USC to design a test that they hope will empirically identify which children are headed toward a life on the street. This year, the test will help decide the direction of the millions of dollars the city spends annually on gang-prevention efforts.

The screening, intended for children between 10 and 15 years old, asks a range of questions on issues ranging from past relationships to drug use to attitudes toward violence. One question asks test takers if they recently had a breakup with a boyfriend or girlfriend; another asks test takers if they are kind to younger children.

In order to avoid stigmatizing children with the label of potential criminal, Dr. Klein says test takers aren't told that the questions are intended to screen for future gang involvement.

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FP: what (those sneaky) human rights advocates don't say about the use of child soldiers
WR: Angelina Jolie knows all about it
Jolie stopped by [the ICC] on her way to Cannes to observe the trial of Thomas Lubanga. As we've discussed previously, Lubanga is charged with using child soldiers during Congo's Ituri conflict. Prosecution of the use of child soldiers is of tremendous personal importance to Jolie, who is slowly assembling her own child army. Or she was there in her capacity as UNHCR goodwill ambassador. Whichever.

MSNBC: Rachel Maddow on Guantánamo, prolonged detention and "precrime"
Daily Show: dispose of them!

unworkable [from rubble to resolution]

NYT: Israel and Hamas reject UN calls for a cease-fire, as aid groups become increasingly desperate
"Israel and Hamas rebuffed a United Nations call for a cease-fire in the 14-day Gaza war on Friday, with Israel saying continued barrages of rocket fire from its adversaries made the United Nations resolution "unworkable"... In Beirut, a Hamas spokesman, Raafat Morra, said the resolution "does not suit us because it is not in the best interest of the Palestinian people," Agence France-Presse reported...

The developments came as international aid groups lashed out at Israel, saying that access to civilians in need is poor, relief workers are being hurt and killed, and Israel is woefully neglecting its obligations to Palestinians who are trapped, some among rotting corpses in a nightmarish landscape of deprivation."
WP: for Israel, a "workable" cease-fire means "the total cessation of rocket fire and [arms] smuggling"
BBC: which is one reason "why Gaza war looks set to go on"
"[Israel has] set two main objectives, neither of which has been achieved yet. First, damage the Hamas military wing so badly that they will either be unable to launch rockets into Israel, or be so intimidated that they will not dare. Israel's second demand is that the border between Gaza and Egypt is controlled so that Hamas will not be able to bring in weapons and money through tunnels...

Hamas has reasons to fight on too. Like Israel, it has dismissed the ceasefire resolution. It has demanded a ceasefire that opens all Gaza's crossings to Egypt as well as Israel, and a halt to military action and complete pullout by the Israelis... They have an ideology of struggle, resistance and sacrifice. They could have extended the ceasefire with Israel but chose not to do so."
Gdn: in a surprising turn-around, the US abstained from the UN Security Council resolution, but didn't veto it
"When discussions first began at the UN last Saturday, Washington blocked even a press statement, the weakest form of UN communique. By Wednesday, the White House had come round to the idea, proposed by Britain and France, of an official statement to be issued by the presidency of the security council, but continued to reject any talk of a formal resolution. Then, in dramatic events on Wednesday night, Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, announced a volte face, seeming to swing the US behind the resolution. That astonished diplomats closely involved in the negotiations, who moved swiftly to issue a text of the resolution...

Explaining the US decision to abstain, Rice said Washington agreed with the text and goals of the resolution but added: "The United States thought it important to see the outcomes of the Egyptian mediation efforts in order to see what this resolution might have been supporting."
Gdn: while Obama may establish direct channels of communication with Hamas
"The incoming Obama administration is prepared to abandon George Bush's ­doctrine of isolating Hamas by establishing a channel to the Islamist organisation, sources close to the transition team say... Richard Haass, a diplomat under both Bush presidents who was named by a number of news organisations this week as Obama's choice for Middle East envoy, supports low-level contacts with Hamas provided there is a ceasefire in place and a Hamas-Fatah reconciliation emerges."
Gdn: UN calls Israeli bombing of house filled with evacuees "one of the gravest incidents since the beginning of operations"
"OCHA [the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs] said the incident took place on 4 January, a day after Israel began its ground offensive in Gaza. According to testimonies gathered by the UN, Israeli soldiers evacuated about 110 Palestinians to a single-storey house in Zeitoun, south-east Gaza. The evacuees were instructed to stay indoors for their safety but 24 hours later the Israeli army shelled the house. About half the Palestinians sheltering in the house were children, OCHA said. The report also complains that the Israeli Defence Force prevented medical teams from entering the area to evacuate the wounded."
WP: emergency workers still pulling out survivors from under the rubble
Crimes of war? Anthony Dworkin and Andrew Sullivan (part 1, 2) analyze the conduct of the war
NYT: interactive graphic of the conflict in Gaza

NYT: 14 killed in Afghani attacks on Thursday and Friday near Kandahar Province
NYT: Petraeus says US success in Afghanistan requires sustained commitment, possibly talks with Iran
"Gen. David H. Petraeus said Thursday that the country would require a “sustained, substantial” commitment from the United States and other nations to stop a downward spiral of violence and a resurgence of the Taliban and Al Qaeda... [He] also said that Iran, which has been the target of United Nations sanctions because of its nuclear program, had common interests with the United States and other nations in a secure Afghanistan.

Although he hinted that such interests might make talks with Iran feasible, he said he would leave the topic to diplomats and policy makers."
FP: Fick and Nagl on the application of the Counterinsurgency Field Manual in Afghanistan

NYT: two al Qaeda leaders killed by US unmanned aircraft in Pakistan
"Predator aircraft operated by the C.I.A. killed a Kenyan citizen who was described as Al Qaeda’s chief of operations in Pakistan, as well as his Kenyan lieutenant... The C.I.A. declined to comment on the reported deaths of the top Qaeda operatives, reflecting the secrecy surrounding the Predator strikes along the border that have stirred anger among Pakistan’s political and military leaders, and the residents of the mountainous region... Once largely reserved for missions to kill senior Arab Qaeda operatives, the Predator has since last summer been increasingly used to strike Pakistani militants and even trucks carrying rockets to resupply fighters in Afghanistan. Many of the Predator strikes are taking place as deep as 25 miles into Pakistani territory, not just along the border."
WP: these kind of precision strikes result of good intelligence
"Terrorism experts have cautioned that al-Qaeda has shown surprising resilience, quickly replacing leaders who are killed or captured. Still, there have been few occasions since 2001 when the group lost so many top operatives so quickly. Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert and Georgetown University professor, said the agency's tactics appear to be cutting dramatically into al-Qaeda's top ranks with strikes deep into a lawless border region that insurgents long regarded as a sanctuary.

"It is a stunning testament of the accuracy of intelligence that the United States is obtaining," Hoffman said. "Either we have built up an impressive network of sources that facilitates such precision targeting, or the Pakistani authorities are cooperating big-time." Added the U.S. counterterrorism official: "The continuous loss of senior talent has to have a pretty serious effect."
NYT: Pakistani national security adviser reveals surviving Mumbai gunman is Pakistani, is fired soon thereafter
"Pakistan’s national security adviser, Mahmud Ali Durrani, confirmed Wednesday that the lone surviving gunman from the Mumbai terrorist attacks, Muhammad Ajmal Kasab, is a Pakistani citizen. Hours later Mr. Durrani, a respected retired army general and former ambassador to the United States, was fired by the Pakistani prime minister for “irresponsible behavior.”

The bizarre turn of events — which came after repeated claims by Pakistani officials that they could find no proof of Mr. Kasab’s nationality — showed how deeply the aftermath of the Mumbai siege has riven the country’s fragile government as it struggles to come to grips with what American officials have said is clear evidence that Pakistani nationals plotted the attack.

Even as officials in Islamabad asserted that the country’s premier spy agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, was trying to shed longstanding sympathies and ties to Islamist militants, evidence continued to grow that it was a militant group established by the agency two decades ago that carried out the Mumbai attacks."
NYT: released dossier details the attacks

NYT: Eight Iraqi soldiers and two civilians killed in attacks in Diyala, Kirkuk and Mosul
"Although the majority of Diyala’s population is Sunni, the provincial council is dominated by Shiites because Sunnis boycotted local elections in 2005. But as new provincial elections, scheduled for Jan. 31, are approaching, tensions between Sunnis and Shiites have increased."
WP: US troops in Iraq allowed to drink in combat zones... for Superbowl
"Of all the missives the top U.S. military commander in Iraq has signed, probably none generated more cheer than the one issued this week authorizing all U.S. troops to drink beer. Two catches: only two per person and only on Super Bowl night.

The waiver, issued Wednesday by Gen. Ray Odierno, marks the first time all American service members in Iraq will be allowed to break the ban on liquor in combat zones without risking being court-martialed."

NYT: Sri Lankan government takes the Elephant Pass; Tigers suffering
"Sri Lankan forces captured the strategic Elephant Pass base from the Tamil Tigers on Friday, ousting the rebels from their last stronghold on the Jaffna peninsula and boxing them into a shrinking pocket of land in the northeast.

The capture of the base gives the government nearly full control of the northern peninsula, the Tamil’s cultural capital, for the first time since 2000. It also puts the country’s major north-south highway completely under its control for the first time in 23 years."

WP: Khmer Rouge leader's trial to start this spring
"International co-prosecutor Robert Petit said that Kaing Khek Iev, who was better known as Duch when he headed the Tuol Sleng torture center in Phnom Penh, will probably go on trial in March, but that four other defendants, all in their 80s, are unlikely to take the stand until 2010.

The trial process, which has so far cost $50 million, has been marred by delays, controversial defense motions, accusations of corruption and, most recently, a public dispute between Petit and his Cambodian co-prosecutor, Chea Leang, over future prosecutions.

Petit wants to file charges against an additional five or six former Khmer Rouge members, but Chea Leang has objected, saying that the court should concentrate its limited resources on the cases on hand. She has also cited a need to focus on national reconciliation."

WP: meanwhile, Khalid Sheik Mohammed is tried in absentia in France for Tunisian bombings
"Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the self-styled mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, went on trial in Paris on Monday on charges he helped organize a truck-bomb attack on an ancient Tunisian synagogue seven months later in which 21 people were killed.

Although far less deadly than the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, the Tunisia bombing dramatized al-Qaeda's support beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan. It occurred as the United States and the rest of the world were coming to grips with the threat posed by Osama bin Laden and beginning to understand that his followers were scattered in a number of countries, including some in Europe and North Africa... According to charges brought by French authorities [another defendant] drove a tanker truck laden with propane gas into the historic Ghriba synagogue on the Tunisian island of Djerba on April 11, 2002. The blast killed the driver and 14 German tourists, five Tunisians and two French citizens, providing the basis for a trial in France."

BBC: and Charles Taylor's son is sentenced to 97 years in US court for torture
"Chuckie" Taylor, the son of former Liberian President Charles Taylor has been sentenced by a US court to 97 years in prison for committing torture. The case has been the first test of a 1994 US law allowing the prosecution of citizens who commit torture overseas...

[Taylor's] elite pro-government military division was widely feared in Liberia and the crimes were especially brutal when the unit was cracking down on a rebellion which began in 1999. At his trial in October 2008, Chuckie Taylor was accused of committing or conspiring to commit executions, imprisoning a group of individuals in a hole in the ground, burning victims and administering electric shocks."

AP: Two kidnapped aid workers released in Somalia...
AP: ...and one killed, as the UN suggests a "Green Zone" for aid workers
"It is very difficult to address (the) Somali situation from Nairobi (the Kenyan capital). I think it is even negative," the UN envoy, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, said during a news conference in Nairobi, Kenya. "We should have a Green Zone, if necessary, in Somalia." Ould-Abdallah did not give a time frame for creating a fortified, walled-off area like the Green Zone in Iraq used by U.S.-led forces, but it would be costly and time-consuming.

WP: trial of opposition party organizer reveals breakdown of power-sharing in Zimbabwe
"At 72, Fidelis Chiramba had spent a decade as a rural opposition party organizer, and late 2008 seemed to bring the truest promise yet for the democracy he wanted. In September, Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's autocratic president for nearly three decades, shook hands with his rivals and agreed to share power.

But one dark October morning, Chiramba was seized by several men in four cars, his wife said. Soon, dozens of civil rights and opposition activists had vanished, according to human rights organizations and lawyers. They remained missing until late December, when authorities marched Chiramba and 17 others into court on accusations of plotting to overthrow Mugabe.

The allegation is widely viewed as an invention. But the activists remain behind bars, and Chiramba's wife has come to think his hope was an illusion.

"Only God's will can change this country, because this government is adamant, " Sophia Chiramba, 69, said in an interview in Harare, the capital. "It is not willing to change. We human beings have tried. But I believe there's a limit."

NYT: US sends emergency aid to Darfur; some wonder, "why now?"
"Bush ordered an immediate airlift to deliver vehicles and equipment to the war-torn Darfur region of Sudan to bolster a struggling international peacekeeping effort there.

Mr. Bush waived a requirement that he notify Congress 15 days before undertaking such a mission, because waiting would “pose a substantial risk to human health and welfare,” the White House national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, said in a statement...

“It is certainly more than passing strange to have the national security adviser come out and say that this step is being taken and Congressional notification is being waived because of the urgency of the situation in the last two weeks of the administration, when Darfur has been on fire for five years,” said John Norris, executive director of the Enough Project, a group here that campaigns against genocide...

Referring to his own decision not to send troops to Darfur, Mr. Bush said, “I still believe it was the right decision.” But he acknowledged that by relying on an international force, he had put himself “at the mercy of the decisions of others,” in this case a United Nations effort that “seems very bureaucratic to me, particularly with people suffering.”

IHT: "Surge" possible at US-Mexico border
"Chertoff said the criminal activity in Mexico, which has caused more than 5,300 deaths in the last year, had long troubled American authorities. But it reached a point last summer, he said, where he ordered specific plans to confront in this country the kind of shootouts and other mayhem that in Mexico have killed members of warring drug cartels, law enforcement officials and bystanders, often not far from the border. "We completed a contingency plan for border violence, so if we did get a significant spillover, we have a surge — if I may use that word — capability to bring in not only our own assets but even to work with" the Defense Department, Chertoff said in a telephone interview."
BBC: Colombian drug trafficker on trial killed in Spanish hospital
"Leonidas Vargas, a once powerful Colombian drug trafficker, has been shot dead in his hospital bed in the Spanish capital, Madrid. Police said that a gunman entered his room and fired four shots at Vargas, who was being treated for lung disease. Vargas, 59, was the head of the Caqueta cartel which ran vast cocaine laboratories in Colombia in the 1980s."

NYT: Greece riots lead to cabinet shake-up
"Shaken by scandals, public protests and a surge in extremism, Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis of Greece on Wednesday replaced his finance minister, who was one of his closest aides, and eight other cabinet ministers in a sweeping cabinet shake-up.

Mr. Karamanlis won re-election 16 months ago, vowing to press ahead with economic and social reforms. But in recent months, a number of scandals and weeks of violent protests triggered by the police shooting of a teenage boy in December have damaged Mr. Karamanlis’s popularity, with the Socialist Pasok Party taking the lead in opinion polls for the first time in nine years...

Despite the cabinet overhaul, Mr. Karamanlis left seven of the 16 ministerial posts in the cabinet untouched, including the posts of ministers of defense, foreign affairs and interior whose handling of the December riots was widely criticized."
NYT: as violence continues
"Gunmen wielding submachine guns, assault rifles and grenades attacked a police unit in central Athens on Monday, seriously injuring a police officer a few blocks away from the site where the police fatally shot a teenage boy last month in a confrontation with leftist youths, setting off days of rioting.

The authorities in Athens said at least two masked gunmen fired more than 30 bullets, seriously injuring the 21-year-old officer near the Culture Ministry. Ballistics tests showed that two or the weapons used had been employed in earlier attack, one on the United States Embassy in Athens in January 2007, and another late last month on a police van... There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

The tactics used in Monday’s attack revived fears of a new round of domestic extremism."

looking for a few good recruits [fight and flight]

LAT: profile of an elusive capo in Tijuana
"His heavily armed hit men, authorities say, have been leaving the gruesome displays of charred and decapitated bodies across the city, signed with the moniker "Tres Letras," for the three letters in "Teo." And authorities believe he runs a network of hide-outs where kidnap victims are held in cages...

"The government's strategy was to break the cartels into smaller, more manageable pieces," said David Shirk, director of the Trans-Border Institute at the University of San Diego. "But smaller doesn't mean more manageable. . . . It's begetting more violence . . . and more dangerous organizations, and people like this guy."

Garcia, whose family is said to be from Sinaloa state, grew up in Tijuana and started out in the Arellano Felix organization as a trusted enforcer, probably in the 1990s, and grew powerful as a lieutenant who helped transform kidnapping into a multimillion-dollar industry.

This year, the head of the cartel, Fernando Sanchez Arellano, a nephew of the founding brothers, tried unsuccessfully to halt the abductions of doctors, businessmen and politically influential figures. Sanchez Arellano apparently was worried that the crime wave, attributed to Garcia, was hampering the cartel's drug-trafficking business, according to U.S. and Mexican authorities.

In April, the renegade lieutenant and the cartel leader split in spectacular fashion; their gangs shot it out on an expressway in eastern Tijuana, leaving 14 dead. Garcia fled to Sinaloa but returned in September to launch all-out war. He is believed to be allied with the Sinaloa cartel, which is led by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman...

The government, meanwhile, seems helpless to stop the killings. Police officers who have not been lured away to work for Garcia as drivers, lookouts and hit men are paralyzed with fear. Garcia is said to possess a list with every cop's address and phone number."
BBC: drug traffickers biggest organized crime threat to US: National Drug Threat Assessment
WP: 12 decapitated bodies found in southern Mexico

AP: UN tribunal convicts Rwandan of genocide
"On Thursday, the court said Bagosora used his position as the highest authority in Rwanda's Defense Ministry to direct Hutu soldiers to kill Tutsis and moderate Hutus. According to the indictment against him, Bagosora once said he was returning to Rwanda to "prepare the apocalypse."

The court said he was responsible for the deaths of Rwandan Prime Minister Agathe Uwilingiyimana and 10 Belgian peacekeepers who tried to protect her at the outset of the genocide...

About 63,000 people are suspected of taking part in the genocide. Many have been sentenced by community-based courts, called gacaca, where suspects were encouraged to confess and seek forgiveness in exchange for lighter sentences."
Gdn: background on Bagosora
Gdn: Q&A on the genocide

BBC: massacre by 'bandits' in the Central African Republic
"So who are these bandits that plague the CAR? Many are veteran fighters from the many coups there have been in this country.

Others are fugitives from neighbouring countries like Chad and Sudan.

They have been able to operate freely here as the government of President Francois Bozize has little control over much of the countryside which is divided between a number of rebel groups.

Often the bandits are better organised and equipped than any of these other forces."
BBC: the violence attracts little attention but is generating a humanitarian crisis
"The Central African Republic has seen more than 300,000 people forced from their homes over the past three years, due to civil war and attacks by armed bandits.

One father of four, Zaoro Joseph, told of bandits killing eight people in his village and beating those that remained.

But when the government soldiers came to chase the bandits away, they robbed and burned the village too...

There are only 500 miles of paved roads in an often lawless country that is bigger than France."

BBC: evidence of enslavement in Darfur
"Kidnapped men have been forced to work on farmland controlled by Janjaweed militias, a coalition of African charities says.

Eyewitnesses also say the Sudanese army has been involved in abducting women and children to be sex slaves and domestic staff for troops in Khartoum."

WP: Somalis join or flee the Islamist group al-Shabab
"Ibrahim and two friends fled several months ago, just after the Shabab began beating people not attending Friday prayers and just before the group publicly stoned to death a 13-year-old girl it had convicted of adultery.

The options for young men like them, it seemed, had narrowed to two: sign up or run.

"For us, it was not good to join," said Ibrahim, a lanky 22-year-old who fled to this overflowing refugee camp across the Kenyan border. "Because if we join one side, the other side will hunt us and kill us."...

Mohamed estimated that about 80 percent of his friends had relented and joined the Shabab, some because they were "seduced" by religious ideology, he said, and others because they felt they had no other choice.

The rest attempted to survive by banding together in small groups, he said. When the Shabab took over southern Mogadishu, they fled to the northern part of the city. When it took over the north, they fled south again."

BBC: Kenya sets up tribunal for voting violence, will seek "ring leaders"

wronging rights: UNHCR awareness campaign video on the Congo (via Chris Blattman)

London Review of Books: Mamdani on how Mugabe has retained power (via Chris Blattman)
"There is no denying Mugabe’s authoritarianism, or his willingness to tolerate and even encourage the violent behaviour of his supporters. His policies have helped lay waste the country’s economy, though sanctions have played no small part, while his refusal to share power with the country’s growing opposition movement, much of it based in the trade unions, has led to a bitter impasse. This view of Zimbabwe’s crisis can be found everywhere, from the Economist and the Financial Times to the Guardian and the New Statesman, but it gives us little sense of how Mugabe has managed to survive. For he has ruled not only by coercion but by consent, and his land reform measures, however harsh, have won him considerable popularity, not just in Zimbabwe but throughout southern Africa. In any case, the preoccupation with his character does little to illuminate the socio-historical issues involved.

Many have compared Mugabe to Idi Amin and the land expropriation in Zimbabwe to the Asian expulsion in Uganda. The comparison isn’t entirely off the mark. I was one of the 70,000 people of South Asian descent booted out by Idi Amin in 1972; I returned to Uganda in 1979. My abiding recollection of my first few months back is that no one I met opposed Amin’s expulsion of ‘Asians’. Most merely said: ‘It was bad the way he did it.’ The same is likely to be said of the land transfers in Zimbabwe."
WP: US says it's time for him to go

WP: the US military has been protecting an Iranian opposition group that had ties to Hussein; Iraq to expel it
LAT: 35 arrested in Iraq, accused of membership in Al Awda (The Return), reorganized Baath Party
WP: Interior Minister claims arrests based on 'a big lie'
WP: segregation and violence in Kirkuk
"In contrast to security improvements elsewhere in the country, Arab, Kurdish and Turkmen residents of Kirkuk remain targets of political violence as their leaders vie for control of what they see as their ancestral lands. Last week, at least 57 people died in a suicide bombing on the outskirts of the city, the deadliest assault in Iraq in six months..

Politics infuses virtually every discussion in this neighborhood -- a sprawling jumble of houses, shops and mosques connected by dusty, unpaved roads in the southern part of Kirkuk. About 120 Kurdish families are clustered inside sand berms, blast walls and checkpoints. Arab and Turkmen houses surround them.

For decades, Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens mingled freely, intermarried and ran businesses together. Today, the communities rarely mix...

Senior non-Kurdish police commanders complain that Kurdish intelligence agencies were opening offices in many enclaves, mirroring Hussein's security apparatus."

Newsweek: interview with President Zardari
"[Q:] 'Do you control Pakistan or does the Army control Pakistan?'
[A:] 'Democracy controls Pakistan … All the players today understand that democracy is the only way.' "

WP: protests seem to be spreading among urban middle class in China
"Rural protests, often led by impoverished farmers angry over land seizures that leave them unable to feed their families, have occurred sporadically over the past decade. But richer, more educated Chinese are behind the recent strikes, which have disrupted life in China's cities. The success achieved by the drivers in Chongqing has inspired work stoppages elsewhere."

NYT: Georgian military needs makeover
"The military Mr. Saakashvili inherited was a Red Army orphan: small, decrepit, badly trained and poorly equipped. In the early 1990s the Georgian Army lost two wars against Russian-backed separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Some of its troops were accused of committing war crimes. (Abkhaz and Ossetian forces have also been accused of ugly battlefield excesses.)

Mr. Saakashvili purchased new arms and vehicles, raised salaries, built new bases, increased the country’s collaboration with the Pentagon and urged the armed forces to emulate Western practices, in part by encouraging volunteer soldiers.

The Georgian military appeared to be transforming. American officers praised a few of their Georgian counterparts in Iraq. And Eduard Kokoity, the president of South Ossetia, said the Georgian military was much more prepared and capable in its initial attack in August than it had been in the past.

But as the war drew into a second day and Russian forces flowed into South Ossetia, the Georgian military quickly broke down. Many commanders were reduced to communicating by cellphone. The army fired cluster munitions on its own villages. Many units fled, abandoning equipment, ammunition and their own dead...

“One of the reasons they got into the war is that their command and control is a mess,” [an American] officer said. “They have no ability to process and analyze strategic information and provide it to decision makers in a systematic way.” The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the assessment."

Gdn: recruitment, displacement, and denunciations as gov't continues push against the LTTE in Sri Lanka
"With its back to the jungle, the Tigers are stepping up pressure on civilians to defend their dwindling area of control, according to a Human Rights Watch report this week. "Trapped in the LTTE's iron fist, ordinary Tamils are forcibly recruited as fighters and forced to engage in dangerous labour near the front lines", Brad Adams, HRW's Asia director said on Monday. "It has recently gone beyond its longstanding 'one person per family' forced recruitment policy and now sometimes requires two or more family members to join its ranks. The LTTE claims to be fighting for the Tamil people, but it is responsible for much of the suffering of civilians".

The government, meanwhile, urges civilians to flee the Tiger areas and houses them in so-called welfare camps, which independent sources describe as detention camps. There government-paid informers wearing masks walk through the ranks of the displaced, identifying people as alleged Tiger supporters who are promptly detained."

Newsweek: the whistleblower on the wiretaps comes forward
"In the spring of 2004, Tamm had just finished a yearlong stint at a Justice Department unit handling wiretaps of suspected terrorists and spies—a unit so sensitive that employees are required to put their hands through a biometric scanner to check their fingerprints upon entering. While there, Tamm stumbled upon the existence of a highly classified National Security Agency program that seemed to be eavesdropping on U.S. citizens. The unit had special rules that appeared to be hiding the NSA activities from a panel of federal judges who are required to approve such surveillance. When Tamm started asking questions, his supervisors told him to drop the subject. He says one volunteered that "the program" (as it was commonly called within the office) was 'probably illegal.'...

For weeks, Tamm couldn't sleep. The idea of lawlessness at the Justice Department angered him. Finally, one day during his lunch hour, Tamm ducked into a subway station near the U.S. District Courthouse on Pennsylvania Avenue. He headed for a pair of adjoining pay phones partially concealed by large, illuminated Metro maps. Tamm had been eyeing the phone booths on his way to work in the morning. Now, as he slipped through the parade of midday subway riders, his heart was pounding, his body trembling. Tamm felt like a spy. After looking around to make sure nobody was watching, he picked up a phone and called The New York Times."

experimenting with order [try a little tenderness]

WP: US changing tactics in Iraq
"With violence down sharply this year, the U.S. military is broadening its efforts to reconcile Sunnis and Shiites, reintegrate former insurgents into society and repair the rift between residents and their government...The U.S. reconciliation campaign includes some major projects, but much of the American effort is decentralized, consisting of reconstruction programs, peace marches and meetings with rival tribal leaders over platters of rice and lamb. In many cases, soldiers are making up the details as they go along...

Lt. Col. Monty Willoughby, 42, has had to figure out how to keep the peace in an area of northwestern Baghdad that was previously a hotbed of Sunni insurgents. He became worried last spring when U.S. commanders announced a plan to release thousands of Iraqis detained for alleged ties to insurgents.

"We're like, man, how are we going to keep these guys from falling back into it?" asked Willoughby, an earnest, freckled officer from Clever, Mo., who commands the 4th Squadron of the 10th Cavalry Regiment, which is attached to the 101st Airborne.

Willoughby decided he needed someone to help the detainees reenter society. And that is how a squadron of macho U.S. infantrymen and gung-ho tankers came to hire their first professional nurturer...

[nuturer] Kashmoola and his fellow managers line up housing as well as jobs or training programs. Then the managers check up on the men to ensure they stay out of trouble.

On a recent sunny Thursday, Kashmoola and Willoughby attended a detainee release ceremony on the lawn of a blue-domed mosque. The U.S. military has made these into gala affairs, with flag-waving crowds and speeches from Muslim leaders and Iraqi army officers. The 48 newly freed men were handed gift-wrapped bags of chocolates by U.S. soldiers who a year ago might have flex-cuffed them...

The Army issued a field manual last month on "stability operations" to guide its troops in facilitating reconciliation and providing essential services. It was produced after the Department of Defense in 2005 elevated "stability operations" to the same level in its doctrine as offensive and defensive operations...

Building support for government institutions is a key part of the U.S. military's pacification effort in Iraq. In Willoughby's area of northwestern Baghdad, for example, American troops have cleaned out sewers, rebuilt schools and put in a swimming pool.

"As you, as a citizen, are looking on, you've got to say, 'It's nice to live here,' " Willoughby said. If insurgents return, the U.S. officers hope, Iraqis will consider what they have to lose.

It can be difficult to assess the effectiveness of some of the American programs. Hickman's soldiers, for example, have helped organize soccer games between Sunni and Shiite neighborhoods, providing the young players with T-shirts or uniforms.

The matches aren't billed as peace events, he said, but the parents mingle, re-creating an atmosphere that existed before the invasion. The games draw them from neighborhoods divided by giant blast walls and painful memories of sectarian warfare."

NYT: 10,000 Sadr supporters protest US-Iraqi troop agreement in Baghdad
"A spokesman for Mr. Sadr in Baghdad said his followers opposed the security agreement because they did not believe assurances that the Americans would leave."

NYT: historical headlines on troop agreements past
"In a treaty signed on Oct. 10, 1922, Britain agreed to prepare the country for independence. But the treaty postponed discussion of exactly how this would happen, and effectively prolonged Britain’s mandate under another form for at least 20 years (a period later reduced)."

NYT: photos from the Congo, Iraq, and Afghanistan

WP: UN security council approves immediate deployment of 3,100 peacekeepers to the Congo
"The 15-nation council urged the leadership of the U.N.'s largest peacekeeping mission -- which has faced criticism for failing to defend civilians -- to forcefully implement its mandate. But the council has ignored appeals by the U.N.'s special representative in Congo, Alan Doss, to send a heavily armed multinational force to help restore stability.

Doss cautioned this week that U.N. reinforcements, while welcome, would not be sufficient to restore peace in a region the size of France. He said any durable peace would have to be reached in political talks led by the U.N.'s special envoy, former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, between the rebels and the Congolese government."

NYT: Mai Mai militias complicate the conflict
"The Mai Mai are the third piece to eastern Congo’s violent puzzle, with the rebels on one side, the government forces on the other and the Mai Mai often terrorizing the uncontrolled areas in between. With their guns, leaf headdresses and special potions that many fighters believe make bullets bounce off them, they are a surreal — but still deadly — dimension to Congo’s civil wars.

The Mai Mai insist that they are Congo’s true patriots, but it is questionable how much influence they wield — most villagers call them crooks and they tend to lose their battles. In the past few weeks, they have emerged as spoilers, fighting on when the other armed groups have agreed to stop. The Mai Mai now seem to have a beef with just about everybody: the rebels (whom they clashed with on Thursday); United Nations peacekeepers (whom they clashed with on Wednesday); and Congolese government troops (whom they clashed with on Tuesday)...

There are thousands of Mai Mai fighters in dozens of loosely connected Mai Mai groups scattered across Congo. The movement started decades ago when Congolese communities formed militias to protect themselves and tapped into local customs as a way to inspire the fighters. The term “mai mai” refers to maji, the Kiswahili word for water, because many of the Mai Mai fighters grease themselves up with a mixture of palm oil and holy water before stepping on the battlefield. Often the emollient — and some homemade necklaces — is all they wear...

Many of the Mai Mai militias in other parts of Congo have agreed to disarm. But in eastern Congo, the Mai Mai seem increasingly restless."

LAT: brief respite in Goma in history of hard times
"In a sign of how bad things are, Goma's residents now say that life under brutal Congolese dictator Mobutu Sese Seko is seen as the "good old days."

Then, this eastern Congolese border town [of 600,000] was looked at as the Switzerland of Africa, envied for its natural beauty, stability and prosperity. A vast agricultural industry of coffee, tea, potatoes, beans and cheese fed not only Congo, but the entire region. Gold and tin mines pumped the local economy. Tourism flourished thanks to lush parks and a nearby population of several hundred mountain gorillas.

The relative idyll began unraveling with the 1994 genocide in neighboring Rwanda, when bodies clogged Lake Kivu and millions of refugees fled here, trampling Congolese farmland, depleting resources and bringing cholera and other epidemics.

Then Goma became a launching pad for two civil wars, one of which escalated into a regional conflict known as Africa's First World War. The most recent estimates put the war's death toll at 5 million, mostly due to disease and malnutrition, with many of the fatalities in Goma.

Finally, when peace seemed around the corner, Mt. Nyiragongo exploded in 2002, engulfing half the town in ash and lava and killing as many as 100 people.

Today farms lie fallow and 1 in 10 people rely on international food aid. Mines still thrive, but three-fourths of the profits line the pockets of rival militias and illicit foreign-owned businesses. Tourism long ago disappeared.

Surviving in Goma, residents say, requires a combination of fatalism and pragmatism, accepting that their future is largely out of their hands but keeping a suitcase packed...

An explosion in rapes is another side effect, Butsitsi said. Thousands of women have been sexually attacked in eastern Congo over the last five years, one of the worst records worldwide."

Ind: carving out a parallel state
"Inside General Nkunda's territory the markets are starting to operate again, there are uniformed police and there are plans for an anthem and a flag. There are also – officials insist – no refugees or displaced people. Around the town of Rutshuru that recently sheltered nearly 15,000 refugees, there is little or no sign that they were ever there. Dumes camp which housed 4,000 people last month has been razed, its clinics dismantled."

Econ: options for negotiation
"The simplest way forward would appear to be the reintegration of Mr Nkunda and his National Congress for the Defence of the People into Congo’s security structures. But the price would almost certainly be too high. Mr Nkunda wants the Congolese president, Joseph Kabila, to grant him a principality in eastern Congo, a sinecure in Kinshasa and the disarming of the Hutu militias he accuses of attacking Tutsis."

WP: ICC seeking warrants for 3 rebels in Darfur, accused of war crimes for killing AU peacekeepers in September


WP: NIC predicts rise of state-run capitalism in multipolar world
"It is not a prediction," [Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis] Fingar said. "Nothing that we have identified in this report is determinative. Nothing in it is inevitable or immutable. These are trends and developments and drivers that are subject to policy intervention and manipulation."

LAT: judge orders release of 5 Guantanamo prisoners
"A federal judge ruled here for the first time Thursday that the Bush administration had no basis for holding several of its long-term prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and he ordered that five of the Algerian natives go free."


Gdn: tensions still high in Nicaragua over disputed election
"Sandinista supporters armed with machetes, rocks and home-made mortars snuffed out opposition protests earlier this week, leaving dozens injured. For much of the trouble police were notably absent.

A tense calm descended on the capital when the opposition withdrew from the fray and vowed to challenge the results in the national assembly, setting the scene for weeks of political wrangling and fears of renewed flare-ups."

LAT: drug violence flares in Sinaloa
"Sinaloa, a fertile state on the Pacific coast, has long been at the center of Mexico's drug trade. It has become a hub of violence since President Felipe Calderon dispatched an army of soldiers and federal police to take on some of the biggest drug lords.

The alarming level of violence -- shootouts and kidnappings almost every day -- has sown panic and fear among a normally resilient citizenry."

BBC: Syrian weapons dealer convicted of trafficking arms to the FARC

BBC: "Hindu terrorism" debate in India

WP: grenade kills protester in Bangkok; demonstrations continue
"The dispute between the predominantly urban, middle-class demonstrators and the government, which was voted into power last year with the backing of millions of Thailand's rural poor, has paralyzed the country's political process and gouged deep political divisions between the rural and urban populations.
The demonstrators have ruled out any compromise, vowing to maintain their protest until the government is forced out of office."


Econ: new UK law to punish johns attempts to tackle trafficking
"Most prostitution [in the UK], which is legal, is consensual. But worries about abuse are rising. Performed behind closed curtains and often by people who fear to seek help, prostitution has always been a job in which exploitation is possible. Now, like most unappealing, low-paid occupations, it is increasingly carried out by immigrants: eight out of ten London prostitutes are foreigners, police think. Isolated, lacking knowledge of English or the law and sometimes trafficked by criminal gangs, the new arrivals are especially vulnerable. In the past two years police have rescued 251 women whom they believe were trafficked to Britain for sexual slavery.

The situation is shameful, but the proposal the government unveiled this week—to make those buying sex liable to criminal charges if it subsequently emerges that the prostitute was controlled for another person’s gain—is no way to remedy it. This newspaper tends toward a liberal view of these matters, but even those who do not will find this amber light a waste of space. Better by far either to criminalise outright the purchase of sex or to legalise it and regulate what ensues."

BBC: testifying against the Camorra
"The Camorra kills someone on average every three days, so I only have to stop a random person on the street to find someone who has witnessed a murder first hand and ask if they gave their testimony to the police.

"No, no, no," one woman tells me, "I would be afraid, no-one talks about this."

She tells me the murder she saw took place at nine in the morning in a crowded square, and no-one talked to the police."

Econ: experimenting with disorder and behavior
"The tendency for people to behave in a particular way can be strengthened or weakened depending on what they observe others to be doing. This does not necessarily mean that people will copy bad behaviour exactly, reaching for a spray can when they see graffiti. Rather, says Dr Keizer, it can foster the “violation” of other norms of behaviour...The researchers’ conclusion is that one example of disorder, like graffiti or littering, can indeed encourage another, like stealing."

++
Slate: a new translation of the Quran
"The new crop of Quran translators are brushing aside centuries of traditionalist, male-dominated, and often misogynistic clerical interpretations in favor of a more contemporary, more individualized, and often more gender-friendly approach to the Quran. In the process, they are not only reshaping the way Islam's holy book is read; they are reinterpreting the way Islam itself is being understood in the modern world."

++
NYT (Brooks): Brooks tips off terrorists, Sarah Palin
"If a foreign enemy attacks the United States during the Harvard-Yale game any time over the next four years, we’re screwed." (ht: steve shewfelt)

collective (in)action [fire up the bat signal]

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lessons in foreign policy [we hope she's reading]

WP: Somali pirates hold 100 people hostage in Gulf of Aden
"The attacks are being carried out by increasingly well-coordinated Somali gangs armed with automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades, maritime officials said. Somalia has been without a functioning government since 1991, and remains one of the world's most violent and lawless countries."

WP: Egyptian forces kill refugees and migrants on the Sinai border
"Since the first recorded border killing in the summer of 2007, when Egyptian authorities announced a live-fire policy on the Sinai border, Egyptian security forces have shot dead at least 28 migrants as they left Egypt for Israel, the rights group Amnesty International said Thursday. Of those, the group said, 23 have been killed since January."

Gdn: peace-keeping forces in Darfur lacking equipment, adequate troops
"Unamid formally took over peacekeeping responsibilities at the beginning of this year, but only 10,000 of the agreed 26,000 troops and police have so far arrived in Sudan.

"Most people expect us to carry out the primary role of our mandate - protection of civilians, helping the humanitarian agencies. But right now that is not our priority, because for us to be able to do that we need the troops, we need the equipment ... so we are struggling," the Nigerian general said. "Now we have even turned some of our own personnel into drivers to bring in the equipment."

BBC: tax-paying pride in Freetown ghetto
"The chains that dangle around the necks of the handful of local loiterers are not the customary gangsta dog tags, but plastic holders displaying nothing less than tax receipts.

For the first time in generations, people have been flocking to pay their local council tax of 5,000 leones (about $1.5, 90 UK pence) in the Sierra Leonean capital, Freetown."

BBC: Kenyan IDP camp closure delayed
10,000 have lived there since December displacements related to electoral violence

BBC: calls to prevent outbreak of new war in the Kivus, DRC

Gdn: power-sharing agreement reached in Zimbabwe: MDC will control police, Mugabe retains military
Gdn: profiles of Mugabe and Tsvangirai

Gdn: interactive maps are cool (here's one of Africa)

++
WP: Chavez boots the US Ambassador from Venezuela, recalls Ambassador from DC, accepts Russian bombers
"Go to hell, Yankees," he said as the crowd hollered in support."

NYT: South Ossetian leader calls for independence, not to join Russian Federation

LAT: alliance in Lebanon unstable

LAT: US-backed Sunni groups targeted by Iraqi government

++
Slate: the scandalous report on the corrupt Interior Dept. SV wonders why Dems (other than Bill Nelson) aren't jumping on this

++
Slate: SV has resisted joining the Facebook group 'I have more foreign policy experience than Sarah Palin.' but we're only being polite.

peace or justice [can't eat the cake]

LAT: ICC seeks warrant for the arrest of current president of Sudan on charges of genocide

"If the judges issue an arrest warrant, Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir would be the first sitting or former head of state to be charged with genocide by the 6-year-old international court in The Hague...

Sudan probably will not turn over its leader if a warrant is issued. Sudan has ignored arrest warrants issued last year for an official and a rebel leader, and even promoted the official, Ahmed Haroun, to oversee humanitarian affairs for the people he is charged with helping displace in Darfur...

Moreno-Ocampo will have to show that the systematic killings in Darfur were ordered by Bashir with the specific intent to eliminate the Massalit, Zaghawa and Fur groups on the basis of their ethnicity.

The government claims that the conflict was triggered by rebels from those groups, and that the government and allied militias responded in self-defense. Any casualties occurred in the course of a counter- insurgency operation, and in intertribal warfare, officials have repeatedly said."

NYT: potential fallout

"The indictment of a sitting head of state in a war-torn country would not be unprecedented: Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia and Charles Taylor of Liberia were both charged by international war crimes courts while in office."

mayday, mayday: slavery still exists

New Yorker: fighting trafficking (of people)
NYT: slavery in China

WP: CIA head claims that global demographic changes, immigration threaten stability
LAT: 3 Uzbek immigrants killed in Moscow, part of "ultra-nationalist" trend
"This year has seen a dramatic increase in skinhead and neo-Nazi attacks, human rights groups say, many of them aimed at Caucasian and Central Asian immigrants from hardscrabble former Soviet republics who flock to Russia to eke out a living. The bodies turn up beaten, bruised and stabbed, sometimes mutilated or bearing signs of torture."

WP: US deepens role in Sadr City, where 500 were killed last month
LAT: civilian deaths in April - 969 - reach highest level since August
"The number of civilian deaths reported by the Iraqi government for April was 969, the highest since August, when 1,773 were recorded killed. At least 28 Iraqi soldiers and 69 policemen also were reported killed. Officials at two hospitals in Sadr City alone said they had received 321 bodies in the last month."

WP: army medic who earned silver star - the 2nd woman since WWII - removed from her post because women can't serve in combat
"Pfc. Monica Brown cracked open the door of her Humvee outside a remote village in eastern Afghanistan to the pop of bullets shot by Taliban fighters. But instead of taking cover, the 18-year-old medic grabbed her bag and ran through gunfire toward fellow soldiers in a crippled and burning vehicle...'We weren't supposed to take her out' on missions 'but we had to because there was no other medic,' said Lt. Martin Robbins, a platoon leader with Charlie Troop, 4th Squadron, 73rd Cavalry Regiment, whose men Brown saved...Military personnel experts say that...the 1992 rules are vague, ill defined, and based on an outmoded concept of wars with clear front lines that rarely exist in today's counterinsurgencies."
Gdn: embedded journalist reports from Afghanistan
CSM: an Afghan officer leads NATO forces
"'The [Afghan National Army] has potential to face the challenges of face-to-face war if the spring offensive happens to have the form of conventional war,' says Ahmad Idrees Rahmani, a cofounder of Afghanistan's Center for Research and Policy Studies in Kabul. 'The problem of the war against the Taliban is that [conventional warfare] is not their fighting strategy. Each time they take over a district, the ANA and other forces can easily take them out in a few days.'
Trouble begins, he adds, 'when they retreat and attack in the form of guerrilla fighters. Then it becomes hard to find a fish in the sea of people.'"
LAT: attack on drug eradication forces kills 19, wounds 40
CSM: insurgency moving north

LAT: Mexico deploys troops to Tijuana

BBC: Algeria and terrorism

Gdn: US kills "top Al-Qaeda militant" in Somalia

LAT: Mugabe concedes election, calls for run-off
Chris Blattman: summary of coverage
"It's a matter of hours before the South African government says something disappointingly conciliatory, and the Brits and Americans make ridiculous and empty threats."

LAT: El Fasher, Darfur "humanitarian boomtown"
"In stark contrast to the burned-out villages and squalid displacement camps that characterize much of Darfur, this dust-choked city is booming, thanks largely to an influx of scores of United Nations agencies and private charities, as well as the newly deployed U.N.-African Union peacekeeping mission...Retail sales are soaring thanks to the comparatively high salaries paid to international staffers, though foreign demand is also driving up prices on everything from real estate to bottled water. 'It's a war economy,' said Abduljabber Abdellah Fadul, rural planning professor at El Fasher University."
WP: refugees unable to return to southern Sudan

BBC: the high cost of peace deals and coalition politics in Kenya
"Finance Minister Amos Kimunya says he may be forced to shift funding from vital programmes like resettling the displaced to pay for new ministries...Kenyan politicians are among the world's best paid MPs - each taking home about $17,000 in salaries and allowances each month."

BBC: contesting Obasanjo's legacy

BBC: ICC indicts Congo's warlord "the Terminator"

BBC: report says Mozambique police kill with impunity

BBC: Spain denies extradition request for Isabel Peron, accused of crimes during her 1974-76 rule of Argentina

Gdn: photos from a prison in Northern Ireland

LAT: the 33rd anniversary of the fall of South Vietnam, remembered in Little Saigon, Orange County

The Hoya: Georgetown exhibits shame, does not renew Feith's contract