05 February 2009

weak and moderately functional [beware of armed asses]

Econ: the meaning and implications of state collapse and weakness
But for al-Qaeda, remoteness alone is not enough. Terrorists need protection too, and that has to be secured from local populations as in Pakistan’s tribal belt. International terrorists, moreover, need to be able to travel, communicate and transfer funds; they need to be within reach of functioning population centres. Stewart Patrick of the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think-tank, argues in a forthcoming book that international terrorists do not find the most failed states particularly attractive; they prefer “weak but moderately functional” states. The shell of state sovereignty protects them from outside intervention, but state weakness gives them space to operate autonomously.
Econ: Yemen seems to fit the bill
With its rough terrain, weak central state and gun-slinging tribal culture, Yemen may prove a fairly secure redoubt for al-Qaeda. The group has suffered sharp setbacks in such places as Iraq, Lebanon and especially Saudi Arabia, where it has not mounted a serious attack since 2006. The relative quiet in Yemen, which some critics of its government ascribe to a secret amnesty whereby Sunni jihadists backed the state against a smouldering Shia insurrection in the country’s north, has been eroding. Waves of arrests, prompted partly by Western and Saudi pressure, have provoked an escalation of al-Qaeda attacks that culminated in a double car-bombing of America’s embassy in Sana’a last September; the attack failed to penetrate the fortified compound but left 16 people dead.

AJE: (video) Pakistan's military operations in the FATA region (ht: pstan)
AJE: police officers released by Taliban after promising to quit

WP: sheiks set to ignore election outcome in Anbar
"An honest dictatorship is better than a democracy won through fraud," Abu Risha said.

Here, in the cradle of the Sunni insurgency, tribal leaders nurtured and empowered by the United States appear ready to take control the old-fashioned way -- with guns and money -- if their political ambitions are frustrated...

Abu Risha and other leaders of the Awakening, the U.S.-backed Sunni sheiks who rose up to quell the insurgency, charge that Sunni politicians of the Iraqi Islamic Party have committed electoral fraud, which party officials deny...

Ever since they turned against the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq more than two years ago, a dozen of the sheiks who founded Awakening have considered themselves the saviors of Anbar. Enriched by U.S. contracts and courted by U.S. military commanders eager to preserve security gains, the tribes are more powerful than at any time since the demise of Iraq's monarchy half a century ago.

Now, they seek to transform their anti-insurgency credentials into political power. But democracy is a new concept for the Anbar sheiks, who are participating for the first time in elections. In 2005, they ordered their tribesmen to boycott the polls, allowing the Iraqi Islamic Party, a religious Sunni group, to take control of the province amid paltry voter turnout.

The tribal leaders' inexperience has shown. In a world of byzantine allegiances and fickle loyalties, the original Awakening leaders have split up, bickering over who has the authority to lead them. Several Awakening parties competed in the elections, dividing their vote. At least four founding sheiks were candidates...

The Awakening sheiks have a source of leverage in the police. An estimated 30,000 tribesmen have joined the provincial police, but most remain loyal to their tribes.
AJE: suicide bomber attacks in Diyala

AJE: Hamas seizes aid intended for civilians
AJE: and Israel follows suit
The Israeli military told Al Jazeera it had captured the Lebanese vessel and taken it to Ashdod, where authorities were examining its cargo. The passengers and crew, meanwhile, were being questioned by police.
LAT: ICC considers Gaza investigation
Now [Ocampo's] prosecutors must analyze three questions, [Ocampo] said: whether the Palestinian Authority has legal power to recognize the court's authority, whether war crimes occurred, and whether the governments involved conduct genuine investigations.
AJE: Abbas says 90,000 are homeless
Slate: finding humor in the tragedy
If tragedy and comedy are inseparable, as Eugène Ionesco believed, the Gazans are equipped to be among the world's funniest people. The strip is nowadays little more than a prison for its 1.5 million residents. The water is nearly poisonous, travel is restricted even for Fulbright scholars, and what remains of the civil infrastructure is administered by a mirthless set of militant Islamists.

And, weirdly, rage and sorrow often did give way to laughter among Jebalia's erstwhile residents. One man, a half-blind veteran of the British Mandate years, swung seamlessly from excoriating the U.S. government to weeping over his lost home to cackling about the death of his donkey. Why would Israel want the beast dead, he wondered—it couldn't even hold a gun.

AJE: Sudanese capture town in Darfur, defeating JEM fighters
Government forces have entered the city of Muhagiriya, 80km from Nyala, the south Darfur capital, and are pursuing Jem fighters, Sudan's army spokesman said on Wednesday.

The army started bombing the town earlier this week as the United Nations-African Union peacekeepers deployed in the area, refused to leave.

At least 30 people have been killed in the fighting and thousands of civilians have been forced to flee, a UN officials said...

Suleiman Sandal, the Jem commander, denied that the group had been pushed out of Muhagiriya, saying it had withdrawn voluntarily to spare the population from government air attacks...

There has been speculation that the increase in violence in Darfur is tied to a decision expected by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on whether to issue an arrest warrant for Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's president, for suspected war crimes.

Ban Ki-moon, the UN chief, warned in a report issued Wednesday that an arrest warrant by the ICC could have an adverse impact on UN personnel in Sudan.

NYT: Somali pirates have their ransom for the Ukrainian tanker

IHT: Madagascar coup leader relieved of mayoral post

BBC: Qaddafi says democracy in Africa causes bloodshed
BBC: run-down of upcoming elections around the world

Ind: bombing closes last hospital in region where Sri Lanka troops are pursuing Tamil Tigers
Consisting of a payload of small bombs that spread over a wide area, cluster bombs are notorious for their impact on civilians and are particularly difficult to find and remove after a conflict has ended. In May 2008, 107 nations adopted the international Convention on Cluster Munitions, but Sri Lanka was not among them.

While the hospital had been struck several times by artillery shells fired from positions occupied by both government troops and rebel fighters, Mr Weiss suggested that the cluster munitions – believed to have been used for the first time since a ceasefire between the two sides broke down two years ago – had been fired by the rebels. "The government has assured us that they do not have these munitions and we have accepted that," he added...

If anything, the fighting seems set to intensify as the government seeks to crush the separatist LTTE, which has have been using guerrilla tactics and suicide bombers to fight for an independent Tamil homeland for the past 30 years. At a speech to celebrate Sri Lanka's 61st Independence Day yesterday, President Mahinda Rajapaksa said soldiers had "defeated the cowardly forces of terror that had wrapped our entire nation in fear".

Mr Weiss said there was evidence that the LTTE, forced into an ever-diminishing area of jungle, had been preventing civilians from crossing the front lines and escaping the conflict. He said LTTE fighters had also tried to commandeer two UN vehicles, but desisted once the staff argued with them...

Uncertainty hangs over the fate of the LTTE's leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran. Reports say the rebel commander may have tried to flee the country but there has been no evidence to confirm that. This week, however, government troops revealed what they said was his underground bunker, a "luxury" hideout complete with air-conditioning, sound-proof generators, a four-poster bed and CCTV.
AP: testimony from survivors
Econ: civilians caught in the crossfire all too common
Gdn: gov't rejects call for ceasefire
The government said it would offer a limited amnesty to rebel forces that were ready to lay down their arms as they were on the brink of defeat in their 25-year-old struggle for a Tamil homeland. But ministers refused to hold peace talks, saying they would accept nothing less than total surrender.

Apparently down to their last 600 fighters, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam appear to be approaching the final battle with the Sri Lankan army. The military has encircled the rebels and says the Tigers are close to collapse, having lost almost 99% of the territory under their control only a year ago.

Slate: the durability of the Burmese junta

New Yorker:Nigeriatown in China

BBC: Brazil's occupation strategy for the favelas
After an initial violent confrontation with the Red Command - a drug gang that once controlled this district - police have, for the moment at least, established a full-time presence. Normally, they leave the area, with the traffickers still in control.

Speaking exclusively to the BBC, President Lula said the state was making up for a time when it had abandoned its poorest citizens...

"In the past it was only the police intervening with lots of brutality which punished the guilty and the innocent - very often only the innocent. Now we have police there, who are becoming a community police force."

...with the traffickers gone and police maintaining a 24-hour presence, local commanders believe they can now win over hearts and minds.
AJE: police incursions still happen, though: at least 10 dead in Rio favelas

AP: in case you're keeping tabs, the Mexican gov't says the Gulf Cartel, with its Zeta hit squad, is the most violent - apparently based on the number of weapons captured

Plan Colombia & Beyond: former governor released by FARC after 7 1/2 years describes life in the jungle
“After being kidnapped for two days, they gave us a snack. It was Royal water and soda crackers. I put down the cup and put the soda crackers on top. I went out to “take care of business,” and when I came back, the crackers were folded over from the humidity. If that’s what it does to some crackers, imagine what it does to the people there. It kills and rots everything. That’s why the humanitarian exchange is urgent...

Around us, like planets orbiting, were many guerrillas of the vanguard and rearguard, who served as protection. On occasion they came close to us or we retreated. On one occasion when they came close, about 50 meters I think, the group that was in front encountered an Army patrol. We, who were a bit behind, heard the shots. They held me down on the ground, the shots continued. And so I didn’t know which bullets to protect myself from, those of the Army or those of the guerrillas. It was very tense, we stayed on the ground all afternoon until it got dark. Once it was night, we moved a bit backward. We had to walk in silence. I remembered Alan Felipe [his son] when he was 4 years old. One day he said to me, “Papi, I hate you,” and I thought that the world was backward. And that’s how it was that night, like the world backward: the guerrillas protecting me and the Army shooting. … In the past, on four occasions bombs and planes passed very close by. The guerrillas ran to get us out, to protect us.”

CSM: Venezuela plagued by inflation, ahead of referendum on whether Chávez can run for reelection indefintely

BBC: castration of sex offenders in the Czech Republic

BBC: demonstrations across Europe related to the economy
BBC: 'immigrant'-native conflicts in Italy also affecting Roma population
"A series of what appear to be racially motivated attacks and reprisals have contributed to concerns that a creeping xenophobia is infecting the country's social fabric, aided by a political discourse that often links Italy's social and economic woes to immigration."

Daily Beast: NYPD counterterrorism force
As I came back to New York from years in the Middle East and Europe, what fascinated me about the NYPD was that it offered an alternative to the dangerously ill-conceived, mismanaged, and highly militarized “global war on terror” that had pushed the United States into the gruesome occupation of Iraq and helped inspire a violent loathing for Americans around the world. When [NYPD Commissioner Ray] Kelly says the acronym as a single word, “the GWOT,” it’s with a twinge of irony that makes it sound almost obscene.

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The Onion: Cheney dunk tank fundraiser the best stimulation package!
Organizers reported Sunday that the 44th White House Carnival was a rousing success, raising a record $800,000,066,845 for the federal government—$800 billion of which came from a dunk tank featuring former vice president Dick Cheney..."All right, you candy arms, let's go," Cheney shouted at the line of people, which consisted of Americans, non-Americans, out-of-work autoworkers, teachers, luminaries from the science community, gays, lesbians, military personnel, members of Congress, children, and the entire Arab-American population.

BBC: politics causing part of the increase in Indonesian divorce surge
But changes in lifestyle are not the only cause of marriage break-up, according to an official at the Religious Affairs Ministry, Nasaruddin Umar.

"Believe it or not," said Mr Umar, "some couples decide to divorce because the husband and wife have different takes on political issues. This has never happened before."

New Yorker: James Baldwin, Istanbul, and race in the US

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